Archive for the ‘calculation’ Category

The recession can be avoided in Europe, the OECD provides

November 24, 2011 - 8:25 am Comments Off

An economic recession can be avoided in Europe, but we must mobilize sufficient resources to calm financial markets, said Thursday the head of economic research of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

In an interview published Thursday by La Stampa, Pier Carlo Padoan added that the forecasts on Monday will present projections of growth and very low down on the basis of a negative scenario reflects the severe financial crisis in the euro area.

"No, (a recession) can still be avoided.

Novartis plans to cut 2,000 jobs

October 25, 2011 - 7:55 pm Comments Off

The Swiss pharmaceutical group Novartis announced Tuesday the elimination of 2,000 jobs at the group level and a series of measures designed to absorb the price pressure.

These reductions, announced in conjunction with the release of third quarter results will speak mainly in Switzerland and the United States, and will be offset by the creation of 700 jobs in low cost countries and other countries, Novartis said in a statement.

The group also plans to close two locations in Switzerland and Italy. Part of the research will also be transferred from Switzerland to the United States.

For the third quarter, Novartis presented figures in line with market expectations.Revenues totaled 14.8 billion francs (12 billion), up 18% in dollars and 12% at constant exchange rates.

Net income rose to 2.49 billion francs, an increase of 7% a year in dollars and 15% at constant exchange rates.

Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected a turnover of 14.86 billion francs and a net profit of 2.84 billion.

At 9:25, the title yielded 1.64% to 50.95 francs, while the European Health Index fell back 0.4%.

Wall Street opens up with the right quarter of Caterpillar

October 24, 2011 - 9:40 am Comments Off

Wall Street opened slightly higher on Monday, the strong results announced by Caterpillar has somewhat overshadowed the skepticism of investors about the ability of the euro zone to resolve its debt crisis.

After the summit on Sunday, investors are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the next European meeting on Wednesday, including the question of the level of depreciation applied to debt securities held by the Greek private sector.

"We assume that the agreements will be announced in the coming days," said Peter Boockvar, market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

In early trade, the Dow Jones gained 0.29% to 11,843.15 points.The Standard & Poor's, wider, taking 0.33% to 1242.34 points while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.45% to 2649.43.

The beautiful performance as Caterpillar, up about 5% at the opening, supports the trend.

The world's largest earth-moving machinery and equipment for the mining industry reported Monday a record turnover and a 44% jump in profit in the third quarter, well above analysts' expectations.

Google loses the title, however, 0.45%. The group spoke with at least two private equity investment opportunity to help finance a transaction to buy the core business of its competitor Yahoo (1.97%), reports the Wall Street Journal, citing a source familiar with the matter.

The tandem-Spinetta Juniac to reinvigorate the Air France-KLM

October 17, 2011 - 7:25 pm Comments Off

The eviction of Pierre-Henri Gourgeon the CEO of Air France-KLM and the takeover of the group by its president Jean-Cyril Spinetta could be a lifesaving shock to the Franco-Dutch company, hit by financial indicators in red and a controversial management of the disaster Rio-Paris flight.

The second European airline in terms of sales has also confirmed the appointment of Alexander Juniac, former chief of staff Christine Lagarde, the newly created position of CEO of the national carrier Air France, and so set to resume eventually lead the group.

The arrival of this 48 year old technocrat had been widely anticipated, unlike the departure of Pierre-Henri Gourgeon, whose mandate was renewed for four years ago three months ago.

"It's a shock. It is a little surprised because Air France is not a company that used to act like that. However, it is rather good news for Pierre-Henri Gourgeon has not really good news to analysts, "said one analyst who requested anonymity.

Jean-Cyril Spinetta, who finds his chair as CEO, will be Deputy CEO Leo van Wijk, the current vice-president of the group, while Philippe Calavia remains chief financial officer.They will provide strategic coordination group to the holding of a genuine Air France-KLM, postponed from early 2012 to current 2013.

"The goal is to improve the operational and financial performance of the group in a context marked by economic uncertainty, their impact on European air transport and the situation of Air France face of increased competition from new players "the company said in a statement.

Pierre-Henri Gourgeon became Group Chief Executive in January 2009, while Jean-Cyril Spinetta, architect of the merger between Air France and KLM, had retained the presidency alone.

AIR FRANCE-KLM TROLLING

Stock Exchange on Monday welcomed the prospect of change to an increase of the share of Air France-KLM 1.43% to 5.606 euros, giving a market capitalization of 1.7 billion, against the market trend in Paris.But it remains down 59% since the beginning of the year, underperforming both the largely German Lufthansa and IAG, an entity formed by the merger of British Airways and Iberia.

Pierre-Henri Gourgeon and pays the price for its management of the company, which the French state owns 15.7% of the capital, considered too indebted, too slow to react and too wasteful, including labor costs well above those of its competitors.

The group, which now hold their exercises on the calendar year, merely to predict the end of July a positive operating result in 2011, when he had to exceed 28 million before the year 2010 on a comparable basis.

"It is believed that the duo should be able Juniac-Spinetta implement the measures necessary for the restructuring of the company that Gourgeon should have realized for several years," said another analyst.

"Two caveats, however, do this a few months before the presidential election seems a bit difficult in a society as symbolic Air France.Then, the decision appears to have been in a hurry, it will therefore take time before we truly know the new organization of the company. "

Even before the official announcement, the CFDT, which denounced the months of "rumors, calculations and combinations" between the leaders of the group, said he filed a "social watch" kind of notice of strike to get quick answers to questions employees and a clear strategy.

"We need a flight plan coherent economic and social level," he told Reuters Gilles Nicoli, secretary general of the CFDT Air France."It should not be the result of this reorganization is to delay the action plan."

Another delicate matter left to the new tandem: the catastrophe of Rio-Paris flight in June 2009. The third serious accident suffered by Air France in ten years has also raised questions about the technical training of its pilots, after publication of the interim report of the Investigation Bureau and analysts (BEA).

The discount on Greek bonds would be between 30 and 50%

October 12, 2011 - 1:55 pm Comments Off

Countries in the euro area will require banks to accept losing up to 50% of their holdings of Greek debt, officials said Wednesday the euro area, as part of a larger plan to avoid defect in the disorder and to end the crisis that threatens the economic health of the planet.

Before an EU summit last chance scheduled October 23, during which a new plan to attack France and Germany should be discussed, four of the euro zone officials told Reuters that a discount of between 30% and 50% for private holders of Greek bonds was now proposed instead of the 21% forecast.

The second bailout of Greece finalized July 21 by the leaders of the euro area provided, in addition to 109 billion additional financing, a restructuring of the Greek debt on a voluntary basis.

In this context, private creditors – banks, pension funds and other financial institutions – had to accept a discount valued at 21% of the equity in their assets Greek bond, which represents a contribution estimated at 50 billion euros up in mid-2014.

Since then, the recession deepened in Greece, fueling fears of a defect in proper form and forcing the leaders of the euro area to consider a much more radical action to stem the crisis.

To restore confidence in the banking system, they also work on how to strengthen banks in the euro area in the recapitalization.

The President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso has called Wednesday for a coordinated approach to the question bank, calling to use the bailout funds in the euro area, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), as a last resort, as desired by Germany.

He also asked that the replacement of a permanent fund EFSF be brought forward to mid-2012 instead of 2013.

FINAL ENTRY LEVEL NOT FIXED

The amount of the Greek debt to reach 357 billion euros this year, 162% of its gross domestic product (GDP).For now, the Government of the euro area have failed to produce a convincing plan to reduce it.

"We negotiate every day to reduce this debt. This is the great trading and this is where lies the big problem," said Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou at a meeting of the Council of Ministers.

An official in the euro area told Reuters that the final level of participation of the private sector had not been fixed and was expected to see the reaction of banks to these new demands.

"It's still very open. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors.Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now, and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure, "said one of them under the seal of anonymity .

"The discount will be set at levels consistent with the voluntary nature of participation of the private sector," said a second charge.

An official of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the association that helps set up the agreement with the private sector, said Wednesday that the discount for private investors would be 39% when used the current market prices.

The second funding program of Greece to replace the top 110 billion euros funded through bilateral aid.

The new tranche of eight billion euros during the release will probably be the last under the old program. The 37 billion euros in funds not disbursed in the first plan will be integrated into the background.

Board meeting at 1300 GMT Dexia in Brussels

October 9, 2011 - 5:55 am Comments Off

A meeting of the Board of Directors of Dexia to be held Sunday at 13:00 GMT in Brussels to discuss the plan for dismantling the Franco-Belgian bank, announced a spokesman for the group.

"A meeting of the Board will be held at 3:00 p.m. local time," said the spokesman.

First bank victim of the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area, Dexia was forced to seek government assistance. French Prime Minister François Fillon has to go to Brussels to decide the day with his Belgian counterpart Yves Leterme modality of decommissioning.

France and Belgium flew to the rescue of Dexia

October 5, 2011 - 5:25 pm Comments Off

France and Belgium flew Tuesday to rescue Dexia, while the scenario of a dismantling of the Franco-Belgian bank, weakened by the financial crisis and in particular its exposure to Greece, is gaining credibility.

Placement, the day before, on negative watch Dexia's debt by Moody's, due to concerns of rating agency on the group's liquidity and access to bank refinancing, has accelerated the process.

Dexia shares had lost up to 38% in Tuesday morning, reaching its lowest historical levels, then some limit its losses in the afternoon.

The stock closed lower by 22.46% to 1.01 euros while the index of European banks, although hit by new fears over Greek sovereign debt, has limited its losses to 4.02%.The stock has lost nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, bringing its market capitalization to less than two billion euros.

Emergency meeting, the board of directors of the bank commissioned the night of Monday to Tuesday the CEO, Pierre Mariani, so that it addresses the structural problems of the group, three years after a first plan Rescue audience of over six billion euros, which enabled Dexia to avoid bankruptcy.

The National Federation of Belgian union employees (CNE) said Tuesday it had learned of a decommissioning project at Dexia in several separate entities, which would threaten 150 jobs within the bank holding company.

Several French and Belgian politicians spoke publicly on Tuesday proposed creation of a "bad bank", a separate defeasance structure where the bond portfolio would be stationed at risk for the bank, amounting to some 100 billion euros .

"We need to look at how to change this group.We must remove all the dangerous parts of the bank, this is where the state guarantees come into play – that's what we call a 'bad bank' – then we can give guarantees to customers that if they are depositors or solicitors credit, "said Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders in an interview with television channel RTL.

SUPPORT OF CENTRAL BANKS

In a joint statement, Didier Reynders and his French counterpart Francois Baroin committed and that the two states make "their guarantee to funds raised by Dexia."Central banks in both countries have also made their support for Dexia and stressed that the bank's customers had no reason to withdraw their money at the box office.

The creation of a new French bank – which would lean part of the portfolio of loans to local Dexia to those of the Deposit and the Post Bank – is also under consideration.

This funding could be organized in partnership between the Deposit and the Postal Bank."This may in particular through the resumption of activities of Dexia in this area," he told Reuters a source close to the CDC.

A meeting of the Investment Committee of the Supervisory Board of CDC to be held Wednesday, but there is no evidence that the project is complete enough to be formally introduced.

According to the rapporteur general of the UMP Senate Finance Committee, Philippe Mariani, confirming that such a project is under consideration for funding local government does not inject money directly in the operation .

However, the hypothesis of a sale to another Dexia European banking group, on the model of Fortis sold to BNP Paribas, has not favored by analysts, investors, stressing that Dexia is not salable in the state.

The Dexia Group is mainly composed of a retail bank in Belgium, a private bank in Luxembourg, the pole of financing local authorities in France and banking Denizbank in Turkey.Maintaining this "nugget" of Turkey within the scope of the bank as well as the division's management, may seem equally uncertain.

THE FATE OF MINORITY

The question of a recapitalization by the States, would constitute a de facto quasi-nationalization has not been formally excluded.

"Everything will depend on the scheme presented by the management of Dexia," said the Belgian Minister of Finance.

Barely mentioned, the new rescue plan for Dexia, which would be the first bank in Europe victim of the crisis of sovereign debt, has prompted reactions from representatives of minority shareholders of Dexia.

The consulting firm shareholders Deminor has insisted in an open letter to shareholders to be consulted before any decision..

A speech relayed by the chairman of the Finance Committee of the French National Assembly, the Socialist Jerome Cahuzac, who also considered that the shareholders of the Franco-Belgian bank should be involved in resolving this crisis.

The European Banking Authority (EBA) has announced that it would discuss at its meeting Wednesday of the situation of Dexia and, more generally, problems of financing in the euro area.

U.S. Crude prices finished down almost 1.5%

September 14, 2011 - 3:55 pm Comments Off

The price of crude oil ended down nearly 1.5% Wednesday, partly because of higher-than-expected stocks of gasoline and distillates in the United States and despite a fall in oil reserves.

On the Nymex, the contract on October U.S. crude (WTI) ended on a loss of $ 1.30, or -1.44% to 88.91 dollars a barrel.Meanwhile, Brent advanced 0.41%, or $ 0.46, to 112.35 dollars.

In volatile trading, the Brent has received some investor optimism about the crisis in the euro zone after the European Commission said it will shortly introduce proposals for Eurobonds.

Crude inventories fell 6.7 million barrels to 346.38 million, according to the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA). Economists on average had expected a decline of 3.1 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories rose by 1.94 million barrels and reserves of distillates, which include heating oil, rose 1.71 million barrels while the experts had expected 500,000 barrels and 700,000 respectively barrels

Asmussen, a practical replacement for Stark to the ECB

September 13, 2011 - 4:45 am Comments Off

Jörg Asmussen should be more pragmatic than Jürgen Stark, the man he will replace in the European Central Bank, and his appointment could mark the end of a long line of German central bankers have only one obsession: the fight against inflation.

Even those familiar with Jörg Asmussen describe him as an enigma when it comes to monetary policy.His colleagues also highlight both its competence and its ability to remain calm when under pressure.

Barely 44, he crossed the ranks of the German Ministry of Finance, at breakneck speed from a position of youth advisor in 1996 as vice finance minister 12 years later.

Over the last three years, he was one of the key players of the answers Berlin has made both the global financial crisis as the debt crisis in the euro area.

Intimate knowledge of Jörg Asmussen of the economy and international finance, but also the banking sector or issues of regulation and bailouts, led Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble to keep him as number two after the election of 2009, despite its membership in the SPD party in opposition for two years.

He has since assumed the role of the German sherpa meetings of the G20 and represented the first European economy at large international financial summit.It has also been acting as head of the Department of Finance when Wolfgang Schäuble was hospitalized several weeks ago about a year.

That said, these various functions, Jörg Asmussen was mostly a behind the scenes negotiator, someone responsible for resolving problems in sight the official position of Germany.

During this period he has very few expressed his own opinions.

Rather a 'FALCON'

"How he will think and act is still a mystery.Personally, I think we can store more in the category of hawks than in doves, but I imagine it will take a mediator, "said Manfred Neumann, a professor emeritus who has known Jörg Asmussen as economics student in Bonn.

Jürgen Stark, Jörg Asmussen replaced on the Executive Board of the ECB, was an advocate of hard line in terms of monetary policy, embodying the German Orthodox tradition in this area.

Exceeded by the buyback program sovereign bonds led by the ECB, Jürgen Stark resigned Friday, two and a half before the end of his term, a decision that caused shock waves in the markets.

This departure was reached seven months after the equally unexpected, Axel Weber for the same reasons. Both resignations have shown how the proponents of orthodoxy for inflation were now isolated within the ECB.

Because of his membership in the SPD, some conservatives fear that German Jörg Asmussen making too many concessions to the 'doves' in Southern Europe.

"He certainly has the qualities and profile for the position.But I wonder if he will play the same role Otmar Issing (former chief economist of the ECB), Stark and Weber in the defense of the stability of monetary policy, "Klaus-Peter questioned Willsch, a elected to the CDU.

Others believe that, as president of the Bundesbank and member of the Governing Council of the ECB Jens Weidmann, Jörg Asmussen, a native of the city of Flensburg, close to the Danish border, to flow into the mold of tradition German once it arrives in Frankfurt.

Jens Weidmann and Jörg Asmussen, who both had Axel Weber as an economics professor at Bonn, has for three years worked hand in hand in the answers given by Berlin to the financial crisis.

The Paris Bourse's always 3000 points

September 6, 2011 - 1:25 pm Comments Off

The CAC 40 lost 1.13% Tuesday. Bank stocks, depleted by the debt crisis, still raise concern.

After two disastrous sessions, the Paris stock market failed to rebound Tuesday and finished well below the psychological threshold of 3,000 points, losing 1.13% more as a result of continued distrust of investors for bank stocks.

Read our article: The stock market pays she still on the long term?

The CAC 40 index dropped 33.90 points, to register closing 2965.64 points, regaining its level of spring 2009. The trade volume amounted to 3.68 billion euros.

In London the market has recovered 1.06% Tuesday, while Frankfurt yielded 1%.The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.29%.

After opening around the balance, the Paris market has outlined a rebound, briefly taking 1% in late morning, before going far into the red in the afternoon.

"Nothing allows him to regain trust and confidence crisis affecting the banking sector takes precedence over all other news," says Yves Marc seller of shares at Global Equities.

"The right number of business services in the United States helped to comfort the market a few minutes, but then it fell like a souffle," he said.

This figure, of investors is highly anticipated yet emerged better than expected at 53.3%, while the median forecast of analysts gave it down to 51.0%.

But against the steamroller of the decline in bank stocks – their weight in the index in Paris is about 15% – there is no salvation, says it in the rooms.

Bank stocks are indeed still on the front line, battered by fears of a deepening crisis of debt in the euro zone, while at the same time the market begins to question their ability to absorb shocks.

"We are in an infernal mechanism in this sector," noted René Defossez, bond strategist at Natixis.

About the Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde on their large capital requirements have the fuel to the fire, say the operators.

BNP Paribas lost 5.24% to 29.66 euros, Natixis 4.57% to 2.44 euros, Societe Generale 6.54% to 18.92 euros and Credit Agricole 4.72% to 5.56 euros after touching at the meeting time low of 5.46 euros.

Cyclical stocks (dependent on conditions) marked a sharp decline, as Renault (-3.15% to 23.99 euros) and PSA (-2.95% to 17.90 euros).

The specialist waste treatment Séché lost 9.65% to 42.45 euros.The group recorded an increase in its half-year net profit but its operating income fell 2.7%.

In terms of the securities increases there "defensive", less affected by economic events, such as Essilor (2.17% to 54.05 euros) or Sanofi (1.66% to 48.88 euros), which s 'is set for new medium-term targets, well received by the market.

Air France recovered a few points (0.79% to 5.99 euros) from the information on his economic plan.