Release of loan to Greece, strengthening the EFSF, recapitalization … L'Expansion. Com recalls the options on the table today that nourish the hopes of investors. The facade of the National Bank of Greece after an event.
After much depressed, the markets are now on the lookout for any good news. This causes bouts of optimism, albeit fragile, but occasionally managed to boost budgets. European markets have opened sharply higher on Tuesday, the Cac 40 rising eg more than 3%. Overview of the issues fueling the hopes of investors.
Greece will she get her ready for 8 billion?
This is step number one for the "sick Greek" still breathing. Athens has the resources to take another few weeks. Following is the default.Creditors (IMF, EU, ECB) should pay him the sixth installment of their first aid plan in mid-October, but nothing is won yet. The "Troika" wants guarantees of austerity because Greece is far behind in its program to reduce the budget deficit in structural reforms and for privatization. The country has indeed committed to sell 50 billion euros in assets by 2015, of which 5 billion by the end of the year. Yet privatization has reported 400 million euros. Athens is therefore trying to work twice as hard. She will announce measures this week on extending the operating license of the Athens International Airport, a concession on the gaming company OPAP, currently in a public monopoly, and licenses for video lottery.Moreover, after the announcement of new draconian austerity measures last week, the government plans to get ahead of schedule rigorously. According to his spokesman Elias Mossialos, "it is possible that additional measures planned for 2013 and 2014 are taken earlier." The Troika is expected this week to make a tax audit and whether the country can afford to keep its promises.
The second aid plan passed soon?
The slow pace of European countries to implement the second plan of aid to Greece adopted July 21 is a cause for concern the markets. It now seems finally the priority of the leaders of the old continent.The plan includes a new loan of 159 billion euros in Athens and capacity building of the European Financial Stability (EFSF), now has a budget of 440 billion euros and allowed to buy bonds with countries difficulty in the secondary market. It has so far been approved by five countries, including France. The main contributor, Germany, is expected to vote the plan without a hitch on Thursday. And all the 17 economies of the euro-zone should have ratified by 14 October, according to the promise of European finance ministers in a joint text published Saturday.
The EFSF can be further strengthened?
While this increased EFSF is not yet validated, Brussels is already planning to give him more money. The boost in July would allow it to face a possible default of Spain. But it would be insufficient in case of failure of Italy …or whether to help countries to recapitalize their banks. Only a doubling of its capacity to respond, or even quadrupling to 2000 billion euros, as envisaged by the IMF unveiled a project by the BBC would be likely to inspire confidence in markets. But once the proper calibration determined, it would still have to figure out how to give it more scale without seeking further states. Because Germany has made it clear Monday by the voice of his Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, she had "no plans to replenish the funds."
This does not seem to Brussels to consider other ways to increase the response capacity of EFSF. "We are considering the possibility to have a greater leverage to give it more strength," he said Monday as the Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn in an interview with German daily Die Welt.This could allow the EFSF to make a partial guarantee for loans by the private sector to states in need, which would result in lowering interest rates.
Another option under consideration would be to grant the license EFSF a traditional bank, because they lend about 10 times the amount of their capital. Without claiming to achieve such leverage, ie funds could extend the possibilities of lending to countries in trouble by refinancing at the European Central Bank, the latter giving him the money in exchange for bonds of these countries made fragile as collateral. The problem is that at the same time weaken the balance sheet of the ECB … should seek to turn the states. Discussions are still ongoing, the Commission has recognized.The aim would be to reach an agreement by the G20 to Cannes, 3 and 4 November.
Will we draw a line under 50% of the Greek debt?
This is the ultimate taboo of the Greek crisis. The idea to remove 50% of the country's debt is, however, his way, as to be now considered by the IMF, the BBC understands. The Greek press has even said that the Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos would have suggested to members Friday. But he has immediately denied. A default of 50% corresponds roughly to the discount required to sell Greek debt on the secondary market. This compares with 21% accepted by private donors in July.
This scenario, however, still dismissed by many states and economists. Patrick Artus, Research Director at Natixis, estimated that it would be a good solution if Greece was an isolated case … It is not."In the absence of crisis resolution mechanism organized, investors fear that the treatment of Greece set a precedent for all countries in difficult situations. Thus, a massive failure of Greece, with exit or not in the euro area would lead to a rapid worsening of the crisis in other fragile states, until Italy, the euro undermining its foundations, with a potentially explosive area, "said he in an article published Monday in Le Monde.
European banks will they be recapitalized?
If such a restructuring of the Greek debt would be put in place, the IMF supports a recapitalization of banks, possibly through the EFSF. Because the consequences would be terrible on the one hand the Greek banking sector, exposed to 25 billion euros (about one quarter of the country's debt). But also for European banks exposed to debt.The IMF offers the recapitalization because they "now have a lump too small to absorb these losses." In France, the Sunday newspaper said this weekend that the government had proposed to BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Credit Mutuel and BPCE to bail in the amount of 10 to 15 billion. But while there had been summit meeting, the executive as banks continue to deny vehemently any project and any need in this area.