The French authorities are willing to lower their growth forecast for 2012, considered too high against the global economic slowdown, and thus provide for other relief budget for next year.
Widely expected, the prospect of saving measures or additional revenue in 2012 is only anticipating the re-shaping of the budget after the scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections of spring, whatever the outcome.
The government was caught in August, choosing to keep its forecast of growth of 1.75% next year, while lowering its forecast for 2011, a decision that French officials were justified by the desire not to show a "pessimism" excessive, in an atmosphere of high anxiety related to the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone.
For comparison, the Reuters consensus of economists sees French growth to 0.9% or 1.0% in 2012, Deutsche Bank provides such a very low 0.3%.
The finance minister, Baroin, acknowledged Tuesday that the current target is "probably too high" and it expressed its readiness to further action to meet commitments to reduce the public deficit.
Among the factors explaining these statements, confirmation of the global economic slowdown is reflected in recent indicators and the announcement by Moody's estimated that the stable outlook associated with the French sovereign rating, the famous "triple A".
Germany this week it lowered by almost half its growth forecast for 2012, waiting now 1.0% instead of 1.8%. The German Minister of Economy, Philipp Rösler, explained that "the pace of expansion slowed, as expected."
PRESSURE INCREASED MARKET
The pressure of financial markets has intensified significantly over France since the announcement of Moody's.
The yield on government bonds to 10 years rose sharply, exceeding 3.2% Friday while it was 2.6% in early October.The yield spread with German debt (the "spread") has further increased to over 120 basis points (or 1.2 percentage points) during the meeting, beating the highest in 19 years recorded this week.
No leads have yet been revealed on possible additional measures to keep the deficit reduction promised by France, 4.5% in late 2012 after 5.7% in late 2011. The government has just promised not to touch the devices that it considers useful to support employment, consumption and hence growth.
Baroin said that "we still have enough tax loopholes, if necessary, we will remove them."Hundreds of derogating tax revenue amputate the tens of billions of euros each year.
Personalities of the majority, the rapporteur of the Committee on Finance of the National Assembly, Gilles Carrez, one of the leading experts of the budget in Parliament, to find out that 5 billion or more next year on a public expenditure of about 1,000 billion euros, would not be a problem.
Members who are currently discussing the draft budget for 2012, however, rejected amendments socialists who cut 10 to 15 billion euros of additional tax loopholes next year.
A study by rating agency Standard & Poor's issued Friday said the risk posed to the States a possible return of the recession in the euro area.The scenario of a dip recession could well lead the agency to downgrade two notches notes Portugal, Italy and Spain, the French note of it from AAA to AA +.
A senior Fitch meanwhile said Friday that the agency did not intend to lower the sovereign rating of France. "We have no plans for decommissioning of France," said David Riley, responsible for scores of sovereign debt, to reporters.