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The European Central Bank will keep interest rates in March and may well leave them unchanged for the rest of the year, according to the latest survey by Reuters Aupre ; s economists after the last monetary policy decision of the ECB.

During the press conference that followed the decision of the central bank in the euro area to keep its key rate to 1%, its chairman Mario Draghi gave no indication of a possible reduction in the cost of money at the next meeting of the Central Bank in early March.

As a result, economists who anticipated an easing credit costs next month, reviewed the consensus that prevailed around this prediction. 

On Thursday the 57 economists surveyed, only 14 felt that the ECB will lower its refinancing rate it next month. Last week, they were 41 to 71 to estimate that the central bank would decrease rates before the end of the quarter.

Mario Draghi said that the economic situation in the euro area had recently stabilized, while stressing that there were still risks.

"It is difficult to assess the thinking of the ECB," said Greg Fuzesi, economist at JPMorgan.

"Many other central banks have already lowered their rates again today. After all, the 'signs of stabilization' are not the same as a prolonged period of increased growth likely to generate inflationary pressures, "he argued …. The

….. Reuters survey shows that the probability of lower interest rates by the end of year is very low in the eyes of economists

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According to a survey, less than a third of French say they are willing to buy the French public debt. The survey refers to the success of the "day Treasury Bills" in Italy where the people were invited to invest in government debt. It goes from 8.86 to 9 euros gross time to reach 1,365 euros for 35 hours, or about 1,073 euros net per month.

Less than a third of French say they probably or definitely willing to buy the French public debt if they were given the opportunity, according to a Harris poll for the site information and the agency Jolpress Image & Strategy to be published Tuesday in the Tribune . Only 6% of French people would buy "certainly" the debt of the country at rates comparable to those charged by banks, and 24% would buy "probably" of such bonds, said the survey.

Generali, the third European insurer, reported Friday a 37% drop in net profit over nine months under the influence of losses on its debt investments and Greek stock market.

The group, which has had to face write-downs of 824 million euros, 329 million at its own Greek bonds, is now anticipated for all of its fiscal operating profit in the lower range of 4.0 to 4 , 7 billion previously announced.

Its net profit for the first nine months of the year stood at 825 million euros, against 840 million expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

Operating income for the period it is in line with expectations, down 1% to 3.1 billion euros.

The U.S. economy has created a little less than expected jobs in October, but the unemployment rate returned to 9.0%, its lowest level in six months, and the upward revision of new posts of August and September suggests that the labor market found some strength.

The number of jobs created was 80,000 last month, showed the statistics released Friday by the Labor Department, while economists predicted 95,000.But the months of September and August, that number was revised up and give 102,000 more jobs than previously announced.

The unemployment rate also fell to 9.0% against 9.1% in September, even though entered the labor market became more numerous.

"This is a step in the right direction," said John Canally, an economist at LPL Financial.

The Swiss pharmaceutical group Novartis announced Tuesday the elimination of 2,000 jobs at the group level and a series of measures designed to absorb the price pressure.

These reductions, announced in conjunction with the release of third quarter results will speak mainly in Switzerland and the United States, and will be offset by the creation of 700 jobs in low cost countries and other countries, Novartis said in a statement.

The group also plans to close two locations in Switzerland and Italy. Part of the research will also be transferred from Switzerland to the United States.

For the third quarter, Novartis presented figures in line with market expectations.Revenues totaled 14.8 billion francs (12 billion), up 18% in dollars and 12% at constant exchange rates.

Net income rose to 2.49 billion francs, an increase of 7% a year in dollars and 15% at constant exchange rates.

Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected a turnover of 14.86 billion francs and a net profit of 2.84 billion.

At 9:25, the title yielded 1.64% to 50.95 francs, while the European Health Index fell back 0.4%.

The eviction of Pierre-Henri Gourgeon the CEO of Air France-KLM and the takeover of the group by its president Jean-Cyril Spinetta could be a lifesaving shock to the Franco-Dutch company, hit by financial indicators in red and a controversial management of the disaster Rio-Paris flight.

The second European airline in terms of sales has also confirmed the appointment of Alexander Juniac, former chief of staff Christine Lagarde, the newly created position of CEO of the national carrier Air France, and so set to resume eventually lead the group.

The arrival of this 48 year old technocrat had been widely anticipated, unlike the departure of Pierre-Henri Gourgeon, whose mandate was renewed for four years ago three months ago.

"It's a shock. It is a little surprised because Air France is not a company that used to act like that. However, it is rather good news for Pierre-Henri Gourgeon has not really good news to analysts, "said one analyst who requested anonymity.

Jean-Cyril Spinetta, who finds his chair as CEO, will be Deputy CEO Leo van Wijk, the current vice-president of the group, while Philippe Calavia remains chief financial officer.They will provide strategic coordination group to the holding of a genuine Air France-KLM, postponed from early 2012 to current 2013.

"The goal is to improve the operational and financial performance of the group in a context marked by economic uncertainty, their impact on European air transport and the situation of Air France face of increased competition from new players "the company said in a statement.

Pierre-Henri Gourgeon became Group Chief Executive in January 2009, while Jean-Cyril Spinetta, architect of the merger between Air France and KLM, had retained the presidency alone.

AIR FRANCE-KLM TROLLING

Stock Exchange on Monday welcomed the prospect of change to an increase of the share of Air France-KLM 1.43% to 5.606 euros, giving a market capitalization of 1.7 billion, against the market trend in Paris.But it remains down 59% since the beginning of the year, underperforming both the largely German Lufthansa and IAG, an entity formed by the merger of British Airways and Iberia.

Pierre-Henri Gourgeon and pays the price for its management of the company, which the French state owns 15.7% of the capital, considered too indebted, too slow to react and too wasteful, including labor costs well above those of its competitors.

The group, which now hold their exercises on the calendar year, merely to predict the end of July a positive operating result in 2011, when he had to exceed 28 million before the year 2010 on a comparable basis.

"It is believed that the duo should be able Juniac-Spinetta implement the measures necessary for the restructuring of the company that Gourgeon should have realized for several years," said another analyst.

"Two caveats, however, do this a few months before the presidential election seems a bit difficult in a society as symbolic Air France.Then, the decision appears to have been in a hurry, it will therefore take time before we truly know the new organization of the company. "

Even before the official announcement, the CFDT, which denounced the months of "rumors, calculations and combinations" between the leaders of the group, said he filed a "social watch" kind of notice of strike to get quick answers to questions employees and a clear strategy.

"We need a flight plan coherent economic and social level," he told Reuters Gilles Nicoli, secretary general of the CFDT Air France."It should not be the result of this reorganization is to delay the action plan."

Another delicate matter left to the new tandem: the catastrophe of Rio-Paris flight in June 2009. The third serious accident suffered by Air France in ten years has also raised questions about the technical training of its pilots, after publication of the interim report of the Investigation Bureau and analysts (BEA).

The G20 said Saturday that the next EU summit on October 23 would present a comprehensive plan that can make a "robust response" to the crisis in the euro area.

Gathered in Paris last Friday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G20 also reported progress in the definition of an action plan for coordinated policies to address the current crisis and strengthen global growth.

In a statement, they indicated that this plan will be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit in Cannes in early November, provided by the advanced countries the implementation of policies to promote domestic demand for those who are in surplus and the savings for those with large current account deficits.

Emerging powers in turn adjust their macroeconomic policies "to maintain the growth momentum to face downside risks," those who are in surplus pledging to accelerate "the implementation of structural reforms to rebalance the asked to give more room for domestic consumption. "

They will continue their parallel efforts "to move towards systems of exchange rates determined more by the markets and achieve greater flexibility in exchange rates to reflect economic fundamentals."

The banking sector soared after news reports citing additional support by the ECB to financial institutions. BNP closed up nearly 10%. Initials of the BNP on the Place de la Bourse in Paris.

The Paris Bourse rebounded on Friday and took 1.02%, after a volatile session, helped by the rise of the banking sector on information suggesting actions in support of the ECB, which reduced fears about the global economy.

The CAC 40 gained 28.43 points to 2810.11 points, in a trade volume of 4.082 billion euros. The day before, he had lost 5.25%.

The Paris market, which fell more than 3% in session on fears about the global economic outlook owes its rise in banking stocks that have ended on a sharp rise.

BNP Paribas gained 9.78% to 2.32 euros, Crédit Agricole 4.78% to 4.43 euros and Societe Generale 8.76% to 16.65 euros. Thinning came from a member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB), Ewald Nowotny, who suggested that the institution "could reintroduce refinancing operations a year for banks," according to information Press.

These words have to take second place to concerns about the risks to the global economy, particularly in the United States and Europe, as the lack of policy responses. The central bankers of the leading countries in the world, gathered in Washington for a summit of the G20, are committed to preserving the stability and liquidity of the banking sector, but no specific action has been announced.

Several values ​​highly dependent on conditions ended up as Alcatel-Lucent (0.28% to 2.18 euros), Bouygues (4.03% to 24.90 euros) and Renault (0.59% to 24.65 euros).

Dexia Bank has distributed to 25 billion euros of toxic loans to municipalities, departments, regions or hospitals according to a confidential listing revealed by Liberation. The additional cost for local governments amount to 3.9 billion.

1500 Five local authorities and public institutions have signed French toxic loans, according to a confidential document which the bank Dexia reported Wednesday Liberation.

The newspaper has obtained "a confidential file of the bank Dexia Credit Local (DCL) which lists 5,500 local governments and public institutions that have subscribed the famous toxic + loan + between 1995 and 2009." "This listing …certify that at the height of the bubble, DCL had distributed 25 billion euros for its customers, "said Liberation, which states that" as estimated by the bank, the additional cost of these loans was estimated at 3.9 billion at the end of 2009 "." This means that communities should pay a penalty of this order, "he says.

Dexia document "shows that everyone is involved: communities of both right and left large urban communities such as towns," said he. The newspaper cites the example of Antibes ", which had borrowed 60 million would pay 21 million in addition to that amount." "The department of the Loire regulations, provide a slate of 22 million in excess of 96 million of loans and toxic Dijon hospital should pay 31 million of interest on a loan of 111 million toxic," writes release. The site of everyday has posted the map of France of Commons infected.

The mechanisms of these toxic loans, the newspaper quoted the party loans to fixed rate and part variable rate "that is, for example indexed to the euro-Swiss franc." "When parity goes below a certain threshold, the rate increased in proportion," says Liberation. "With the crisis of the summer … because of the rise of the Swiss franc, many municipalities have seen their rates rise to 10 or 15%," he writes.

"The addition could still climb with loans running until 2025 or 2030," said Libe which concludes that "these toxic loans have not finished rotting community life. And the taxpayers, who bears a double threat: the increase of local taxes and a deficit of public services ".

The president of MEDEF, Laurence Parisot, expects a return to solid growth in the coming months, despite the debt crisis and fears about sovereign debt. Optimism in contrast to the macroeconomic indicators.

Stock market crisis, debt crisis, global economic slowdown … The unfavorable context did not prevent a wave of optimism blowing on the campus of Jouy-en-Josas, which takes its MEDEF Summer University for three days. The risk of recession is avoided and businesses could even find a solid growth over the next few months, has said Laurence Parisot, president of the employers' organization.

Optimism confirmed by business leaders who travel the paths of the campus: "We see no risk of stopping the activity in France.The companies have order books filled to recover in the coming months solid growth, "says Frédéric Bedin, president of CroissancePlus.

Comments seemingly surprising when growth stalled in Europe in the second quarter and the stock market tumbled over 20% this summer. "What happened in August is disconnected from fundamentals and microeconomic indicators goals," said Laurence Parisot, however.

In fact, the results of CAC 40 companies, which jumped 10% in the first half could almost prove them right. Still, this performance, which seems to defy the laws of economic gravity will benefit economy little French.The major groups are indeed picked up growth abroad as more than two-thirds of their sales are made outside the country, and especially outside of a Europe shaken by the crisis in Greece. And they will continue to invest in Latin America and Asia, where domestic markets are dynamic. So there they will continue to create jobs so that they destroy in France for several years.

So yes, it will not be a recession but it will not flattering growth we promise Bercy and the big bosses. Because after the failure of growth in the second quarter would have recorded the activity increased by 0.7% in the third and fourth quarter to take a goal so ambitious.

While manufacturers surveyed by INSEE to show them, particularly concerned about the coming months, the engine of investment could disappoint, especially since the financial meltdown that hit French banks could complicate access to credit. Job creation and wage increases will also trickle. As a result, consumption, the traditional mainstay of the French economy ticking over. Now with the braking world, this is not the trade that will give a boost to activity. The production of the French manufacturing industry has also collapsed in August for the first time since June 2009, according to the PMI manufacturing index released by the company Markit. Result: French growth should not exceed 1.5% this year and just 1% next year.