Extension or not of austerity measures, private participation in the background of Greek and multiplication fund to support the euro area will be central to discussions of EU finance ministers next week, even if no decision is expected on these records.
Met Monday and Tuesday in Luxembourg, ministers should also initiate discussion on strengthening the governance of the euro area in anticipation of a summit of leaders of the single currency on October 18 in Brussels.
"The recession alarms began to ring in a number of countries in the euro area and the debate on whether or not to extend fiscal austerity measures will be a common thread to the summit on 17 and 18 October, "said a senior source within the euro area.
"This will be the discussion of the next two weeks," added the source, adding that the discussion would focus on the revaluation of the conclusions of EU summit of 2009 which had then asked the bloc to put an end to measures to support the economy to engage in an accelerated phase of consolidation of public finances.
A second source said the meetings Monday and Tuesday would open a political sequence of one month to the G20 summit in Cannes in early November, where it will be then for the major world powers to agree on a message common support for global economic activity.
"The message next week will be divided into three parts: one, the euro area should continue on the path of fiscal consolidation, two, member states must implement structural reforms to stimulate growth, three, in some countries there are margins to take a break from the austerity and let the automatic stabilizers, "said the source.
Germany, the only country in the euro area have such leeway, and whose size would allow him to have a ripple effect, however, already indicated that it did not intend to go down this road.
GREEK PLAN
The question of the participation of major banks and European insurers in the background of aid to Greece should also dominate the agenda, while the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was in Berlin and Paris this week to take stock of the situation in his country.
The agreement of 21 July on the support plan for involving the private sector at 50 billion euros, including through an exchange of current Greek bonds against future carry a discount of 21% but also additional guarantees provided by the countries of the euro area.
Athens, however, just to collect the 90% minimum participation of the private sector she wanted to accept the plan and, according to several sources, deteriorating market conditions in recent weeks has increased the cost of the guarantees offered by governments, casts doubts about the implementation of the program in its current form.
"We are not far from the threshold of 90%. In fact, we're almost there.So we do not think the question is to review the private sector, "said one source.
She said that in case of difference between the expected participation of banks and the finally obtained, it is also possible to further explore the option of repurchase by the Greek state's own obligations to a value lower than their face value, thereby lowering the level of debt.
However, this issue should continue to be discussed during the next two weeks and no decision is expected before another meeting of the Eurogroup on 13 October and peaks of 17 and 18 October.
Multiplication of the EFSF
Finally, ministers should also consider the question of extending the power of the fire fund to support the euro area (EFSF), although again no decision is expected in the next two weeks.
The euro area is trying to find a way to more effective use of 440 billion euros available to the EFSF to demonstrate to financial markets that has a size sufficient to stabilize bond yields Spanish and Italian – a task currently provided by the European Central Bank.
But the euro-zone countries want to wait that Slovakia has ratified the agreement of July 21 before opening formal debate.
"This is not the question of when.And besides, if the agreement of July 21 is implemented in its entirety, this question becomes irrelevant, "said one source.
On Friday, Economy Minister German Philipp Rösler has also said that the Bundestag does not seem willing to leverage the fund Thursday after approving the expansion of its prerogatives.